Brad Smith (jesus_h_biscuit) wrote,
Brad Smith

On The Iowa Caucus

I called it earlier today, and my prediction was spot on. That having been said, let me echo what xtex posited earlier:
Okay; before everyone gets all worked up about Iowa.

There has only been ONE President elected after winning his party's caucus in Iowa. Only one. Ever.*

And that was GWB in 2000.

Bill Clinton only got 3% of the votes in 1992, and came in 5th place. "Unknown/Uncertain" won more votes than he did. Some guy named Paul Tarkin (who?) and George H Bush won Iowa in 1992. George H Bush and Jimmy Carter won in 1980. Bob Dole and Richard Gephardt won in 1976, "Uncommitted" won for the Democrats and Gerald Ford won the GOP... see the pattern?

So... if history holds, whomever wins the 'contest' tonight in Iowa won't get elected in the general election in November. Winning Iowa is the kiss of death, it seems.

*Not counting incumbents; the incumbent president has always won his party's nomination in Iowa.
It's a really stupid, fucked-up, and wholly antiquated process and I really don't get why we still bother with it - but there it is. In the same way I don't really get the point, I also don't get why we don't have election "weekends" as opposed to an election "day". But that's just me.

Keep your sights on any number of things that can and will happen before November, folks. That will tell much more than today ever will.
Tags: elections, iowa caucus, politics, presidential candidates

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